Violent Crime Rates Fell Again in 2024 and Are Likely To Keep Dropping in 2025
This week, the FBI reported its crime statistics for 2024. It was cause for celebration—unless you’re a member of the Trump administration trying to claim credit.
“National violent crime decreased an estimated 4.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 estimates,” the bureau reported. Murder rates declined by 14.9 percent, aggravated assault by 3 percent, and robbery by 8.9 percent. Starting in 2013, the FBI adopted a new, more expansive method of classifying rape; in 2024, the number of offenses in the revised rape category declined by 5.2 percent.
“Overall violent crime…fell 4.4 percent in 2024 with the nation’s violent crime rate reaching 359.1 per 100,000. That’s the lowest national violent crime rate recorded since 1969,” crime data analyst Jeff Asher wrote on Substack.
Earlier this year, preliminary data indicated a considerable drop in crime last year and that 2025 might continue that trend. On that measure, there is even more good news.
“The 2024 data adds confidence that 2025 will feature the lowest murder rate ever recorded,” Asher added. “A decline of around 10 percent in 2025 would place this year even with 2014 as the lowest murder rate ever recorded. Any larger decline in 2025 would give this year the ‘record.'”
This is a wonderful sign: One of the great mysteries of the last few decades is the relatively consistent decline in violent crime starting in the early 1990s. Some years did see spikes—most notably a big jump in 2020—but thankfully, those seem to be outliers and not indicators that the trend was reversing.
Of course, this contradicts the message coming from President Donald Trump and members of his administration.
At the Republican National Convention in July 2024, speaker after speaker warned of the danger Ame
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