America’s Real Foreign Policy
Note: In my opinion neither Putin nor Trump are engaged in “peace negotiations” for the purpose of ending the military conflict in Ukraine. Putin’s purpose is to use negotiations to achieve a Great Power Agreement, a New Yalta. Putin says the purpose of the negotiations is to solve the “root cause of the conflict,” which is the absence of a Great Power Agreement. For Trump the purpose is to withdraw US focus, money and weapons and to concentrate them on China, which is regarded as Washington’s more dangerous and powerful enemy.
It is amazing how difficult it is for the Western foreign policy community and media to recognize and acknowledge facts. Generally speaking, analysts who tell you the difference between the truth and the narrative are brushed aside. All sorts of dismissive names are applied to us few, and false narratives serving agendas prevail. Policymakers themselves end up believing the false narratives, and this raises the risks of dangerous miscalculations.
For example, one of the most dangerous of the false narratives is that the slowness of Russia’s military advance against Ukraine is the consequence of Russian military weakness, high Russian battlefield casualties, the vulnerability of the Russian economy to US sanctions, and Putin’s unrealistic expectation to be regarded by Ukrainians as a liberator.
The truth is entirely different. Every time Putin endorses negotiations, he emphasizes that they must address the “root cause” of the conflict. The root cause is the absence of a Great Power Agreement. Putin is using a long drawn out war that the West tires of to initiate “peace negotiations” that Putin hopes to turn into a Great Power Agreement like the one he and his foreign minister failed to achieve in the winter of 2021-2022.
Washington policymakers have concluded that Russia’s weakness allows the US to withdraw from Ukrai
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