Nobody Won the War in Gaza
The Israeli government and the Palestinian armed group Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire and hostage deal, President-elect Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. The ceasefire is a much-needed breather for the people of the region after 15 months of some of the most brutal violence seen in modern history. The deal also goes to show how pointless extending the war was—and what a large role U.S. power played in it.
Israel and Hamas will reportedly exchange captives as Israeli troops pull out of Gaza, the Palestinian enclave, in a three-stage deal beginning on January 19. It is basically the same framework that Hamas, Israel, and the United States had all agreed to in May 2024. But over the following months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walked back his agreement, stating that he “will not stop the war and leave Hamas standing in Gaza,” and expanded the war into Lebanon.
President Joe Biden tacitly endorsed the “de-escalation through escalation” strategy, flooded Israel with weapons at U.S. taxpayer expense, and even deployed U.S. troops onto Israeli soil. In November 2024, the Hamas negotiating team was kicked out of Qatar, reportedly because of Biden administration pressure. Thousands of Lebanese and Palestinians were killed. And for what?
Hundreds of Israeli troops have died since May 2024, as well as several Israeli hostages who would have been released under this week’s deal, including at least one American. Hamas has nearly recovered from its military losses by recruiting new fighters, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared in his farewell speech on Tuesday. As Israeli troops withdraw, Hamas fighters will once again be in charge of Gaza.
Despite his talk of a World War II-style total victory, Netanyahu was not offering Palestinians a World War II-style surrender. There would be no Marshall Plan, and no new government in Gaza to replace Hamas and rebuild Palestinian society. Instead, Netanyahu’s government was betting—and some cabinet ministers publicly said so—that they could physically remove the Palestinian population instead.
Biden administration envoy David Satterfield reportedly agreed with expelling Palestinians at first. When neighboring Arab countries refused to go along with mass expulsions, Israeli government circles passed around a plan for herding Palestinians into tent camps and subjecting them to forced re-education. On the ground, Israeli troops reportedly handed over control of food supplies to disorganized Palestinian gangsters.
With no alternative, Hamas will fill the vacuum by default. But the war was not a victory for Hamas, either. Hamas will rule over a traumatized population living in bombed-out wreckage. The dead have still not been properly counted; the official death toll of 46,600 may have missed 40 percent of violent deaths, and doesn’t include deaths from starvation and disease. Back in May 2024, the United Nations estimated that rebuilding Gaza would take decades and cost $50 billion, money that will not be forthcoming to any Hamas-led government.
“These deaths should be on the conscience of the Israeli leaders who decided to kill all these people,” Palestinian-American historian Rashid Khalidi told Drop Site last year. “But they also to some extent should be on the consciences of the people who organized [the October 7, 2023] operation. They should have known, and had to have known that Israel would inflict devastating revenge not just on them
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