The Impact of the US Election For Ukraine- Can Trump do a Deal With Putin on Ukraine?
Trump’s plans and approach towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is already evident in his campaign speeches and psoturing. Trump has often boasted about his capacity to negotiate deals, positioning himself as a peacemaker who will bring an end to the war.
His approach would center on swift negotiations and most certainly involving controversial proposals for territorial compromises. However, it is war and unpredictability is a constant. So the specifics would depend heavily on the ongoing state of the conflict and geopolitical dynamics in early 2025.
1. Focus on Negotiation and Ceasefire
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia within a short timeframe (sometimes stating 24 hours). His approach would center on bringing both parties to the negotiating table for immediate ceasefire talks. He’s already had phone calls with Zelensky and Putin who is currently pushing the strategic edge with Trump by calling for a Trump-led negotiation kick-off. In a way, Putin and Trump are already on same page but on same negotiation terms? That will have to be seen but it’s unlikely Trump will want to entirely go Putin’s way and be seen as bending over for Putin.
Trump’s main pitch would likely involve pressuring both sides into halting hostilities temporarily, setting the stage for further discussions on territorial disputes. Trump will argue that continued conflict is a lose-lose situation especially for Ukraine- a claim he already repeated, insisting that Ukraine is losing and Russia is winning and has hinted ending US aid, and he isn’t known to back down from his position even when proven wrong. Leveraging economic interests with Russia as an appeal to ending the war is also key for him.
2. Compromise in the name of “Peace”
Trump has shown a willingness to consider compromises that will involve territorial concessions, at least implicitly. This position is contentious for many reasons and would be met with strong resistance both in Ukraine and among Western allies.
Trump might propose a referendum-based approach, especially so as key members of his team support this.
Elon has repeatedly pushed similar ideas, suggesting that disputed areas such as Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk hold internationally supervised referendums to determine their status. Like it or not, Trump will take it as great if Elon says
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