He’s Back!
Good morning. Donald Trump is the president-elect. The race was officially called around 5:30 a.m. when Wisconsin’s results finally came in. Trump had already won North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania several hours prior, and expected to win Alaska’s three electoral votes (though they’re still not technically in yet, since polls in Adak, on the tundra, close at 1 a.m. Eastern Time), so in characteristic fashion, he went ahead and gave a victory speech a bit prematurely a little after midnight.
Overnight, though, everything solidified with the delivery of the Wisconsin count. We’re waiting on the swing states Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan to get a full accounting of how Trump performed, but by 1 a.m. last night Kamala Harris was done waiting, and slinked off to bed. She’s expected to concede, and give a speech at Howard University, sometime today.
Republicans picked up a Senate seat in West Virginia, with Gov. Jim Justice winning his race to replace an outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (an independent who frequently caucused with Democrats). They also picked up a Senate seat in Ohio, with Republican Bernie Moreno defeating Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. It’s unclear how the House will shake out, but it’s looking like Republicans may clinch a majority there too.
For those keeping track: That’s what a red wave looks like.
There were quite a few surprises, based on exit polls (which, to be clear, are not exactly definitive): Trump performed really well with Latino and black men. The widening education, gender, and income polarization appears to be further bolstered by last night’s results: Trump performed really well with non-college-educated voters while Harris performed well with college-educated voters. Less well-off voters went Trump, richer went Harris. The gender gap between married people and parents is minimal; the gender gap between single, unmarried men and women is vast, with single women going aggressively for Harris.
Interestingly, Trump overperformed in urban areas: Vote totals for all five boroughs of New York indicate major growth in support for Trump. But not just New York: Voters in Chicago, Houston, Miami, and elsewhere warmed to the man. In typically staunchly blue states, Harris did poorly while still clinching victory: In 2020, Joe Biden won New Jersey by +16, which Harris appears to have won by only +5. Same story in Illinois, which Biden won by +18, while Harris only won by+5. Harris was, in other words, a poor candidate (something you probably didn’t need me to tell you).
As for poor Chase Oliver, we don’t have the full popular vote count yet, but it’s looking like the Libertarian Party’s redheaded stepchild/presidential candidate underperformed Jo Jorgensen, the candidate they ran in 2020. Given that the party at times seemed to support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump instead of their own candidate, it’s no shocker that Oliver struggled. (Currying favor with those others was a highly successful bid for relevance, they’d surely counter; we’ll see.)
In ultrablue areas, progressive Democrats faced defeat again and again. Los Angeles voters did away with their District Attorney George Gascón, a Democrat, replacing him with Republican-turned-independent Nathan Hochman. Up north in San Francisco, voters gave more tech-friendly moderate Democrats the go-ahead to replace more radical Democrats on the city’s board of supervisors.
Meanwhile, I’ve been watching MSNBC’s meltdown coverage since about 4 a.m. and I am not convinced that they’re on the way toward atoning for their identity-politics sins of the last eight years. Though some commentators have been able to concede that Harris was simply a very poor candidate hindered by her late and unconventional entry into the race, others have decided to go with the explanation that her being a mixed-race woman in an interracial marriage was simply “too much” for most of the country to handle, implying racism or intolerance from white voters—an odd explanation given what we’re seeing from exit polls about Trump support among black men and Latinos (who appear to have helped him sail to the top). You would think there’d
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