Iran-Israel Conflict: Will It Mark the End of American Hegemony?
International Man: Israel and the US have recently initiated their long-anticipated war with Iran.
How do you see it unfolding, and what consequences might follow?
Doug Casey: Anything anyone says may be overtaken by events an hour from now. This is an ultra-fluid situation. If the Three-Body Problem has become famous for its unpredictability, we’re dealing with something like a Twelve Body Problem here.
The consequences of the unprovoked US attack on Iran are completely unpredictable on one level—but totally predictable on another. Among the many unpredictable parts is whether the Iranians will close the Straits of Hormuz and/or the Red Sea entrance to the Suez. Will they seriously attack the numerous US bases around them? Or proceed to build or buy some nukes to counter Israel? How will Iran—quite justifiably at this point—retaliate in any of a hundred different ways? Exactly how does the US/Israel expect to win without invading?
The only predictable part is that the attack moves the world closer to going all-out in WW3.
It’s odd that Iran has been painted as a terrorist state. Why do I say that? The fact is that Iran’s conflict has been solely with Israel. It’s clearly supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen—but those groups only attack Israel, for their own reasons. Iran has—notwithstanding the US Embassy incident in 1979 coincident with the overthrow of the Shah, a US puppet—never attacked the US or anyone else.
What about “Death to America”? It’s just stupid, counterproductive rhetoric, on a par with the late Senator John McCain’s moronic chants of “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.” At least up until Saturday’s unprovoked attack, Iran presented absolutely zero threat to the US.
In fact—and I know this will enrage reflexively nationalistic readers—from an objective point of view, the US can be seen as a terrorist state. The US Government is constantly invading and overthrowing regimes and assassinating leaders—scores of times since WW2, usually in pitiful little nothing/nowhere Third World shitholes. Trump is the one making violent threats. Israel killed, maimed, or seriously wounded about 3400 Lebanese with boobytrapped pagers in their war with Hezbollah. And, of course, its one-sided war against Hamas in Gaza has killed 60,000. You’d think the Israelis might say, “Enough, already”…
However, at some point, the shoe might be on the other foot. Some group or regime may counterattack by massively assassinating US officials. Or attacking US bases with drones, much the way the Ukrainians did in the heartland of Russia. These are technically very easy feats. Both the US and Israel are playing with fire.
International Man: Public opinion in the US h
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