War With Iran Could Create Millions of Refugees
After days of mounting tensions between Iran and Israel—and rising fears that the United States might directly join the fight—President Donald Trump said Thursday he would “make [his] decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” pending negotiations. “The president has made it clear he always wants to pursue diplomacy, but believe me, the president is unafraid to use strength if necessary,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
It’s unclear what shape U.S. involvement in the conflict might take. (As Trump told reporters on Wednesday when asked whether the U.S. would attack Iran, “Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”) But even isolated strikes could very well devolve into a broader, deadlier, prolonged conflict with terrible outcomes. For one, it could create a large-scale refugee crisis.
Iranians have already begun to seek refuge elsewhere amid the conflict with Israel. Some have left for Armenia. “Observers in Turkey say the arrivals have increased since Israel on Friday launched strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program,” reported the Associated Press. Though Turkish officials say the country “has not yet seen any increase in people trying to cross” its border with Iran, per Reuters, it “has stepped up security” there. Pakistan has suspended all border crossings from Iran, according to Al Jazeera.
Recent wars in the region provide some lessons about the potential displacement this conflict could cause. “Iran’s current population is over 92 million—almost exactly four times the size of Syria when it collapsed and sent a quarter of its popul
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