Could 2025 See the Lowest Murder Rate Ever Recorded?
One of the most predictable clichés in journalism is “if it bleeds, it leads”—the idea that media have a bias for salacious, grisly stories. Like many stereotypes, it’s very much based in truth, which might explain why plummeting murder rates nationwide have not managed to capture national attention.
Despite a news cycle that prioritizes doom, the U.S. has seen that decline take hold over the last couple of years, with the murder rate in 2024 not just falling from the 2020 spike but returning to pre-COVID levels. That brings us to the present, and to a question: Could 2025 see the lowest murder rate ever recorded?
It’s possible.
The primary caveat, of course, is that the year is not over. But the initial numbers show a record low is within the realm of possibility—an amazing turn of events, particularly when considering the murder increase five years ago, which at times felt apocalyptic.
So what are the numbers? In surveying some of the most homicide-prone cities nationwide, crime data analyst Jeff Asher recently found more than a 20 percent decrease in murders from 2024. That’s encouraging in isolation, but even more so when remembering that last year, too, saw a sharp decline, and 2023 before that. A sampling: As of early May, murders were down 3
Article from Reason.com
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