How Many Americans Have Died of COVID-19?
This week marks five years since March 13, 2020, the day President Donald Trump declared a national state of emergency over the novel coronavirus outbreak. By that date, only 57 Americans had died of COVID-19 and 1,645 had been diagnosed with the virus. Three days later, the White House issued the President’s Coronavirus Guidelines for America. Among other things, the guidelines advised Americans to avoid bars, restaurants, shopping trips, and social visits. They also recommended that governors in states with evidence of community transmission should close schools, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms, and other indoor and outdoor venues. By then, the death toll had risen to 102.
Sticking to peer-reviewed science and setting aside the political question of what the government should do with this information, what do we know now about how deadly the pandemic was? On Monday and yesterday, we looked at what researchers have discovered over the past five years about the efficacy of facial masking for protection against COVID-19 and the use of hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin for treating coronavirus infections. Next, we’ll discuss what researchers have determined about the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines.
Today, we look at estimates of how many Americans have died of COVID-19. Some initial projections were frightening. On March 16, 2020, a team of epidemiological modelers associated with the Imperial College London published an alarming study calculating that 2.2 million Americans would die of COVID-19 if measures to stem the spread of the virus were not taken soon. A year later, a retrospective article in The Lancet: Microbe noted that “this information became foundational in decisions to implement physical distancing and adherence to other public health measures because it established the upper boundary for any worst-case scenarios.” On March 18, 2020, I asked: Are we battling an unprecedented pandemic or panicking at a computer-generated mirage?
Others expressed more sanguine views. For example, Elon Musk bet $1 million with his (former) friend neuroscientist Sam Harris in March 2020 that there wouldn’t be as many 35,000 cases (never mind deaths) of COVID-19 in the United
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