An Unprecedented 22 Percent Drop in Drug Deaths Does Not Mean Prohibition Is Finally Working
During the year ending last August, according to preliminary estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the number of drug-related deaths in the United States was about 22 percent lower than the total for the previous year. That unprecedented drop is more than twice as big as the already remarkable decrease indicated by earlier estimates last fall, and it should give pause to anyone who thinks interdiction of the drug supply is the key to reducing the annual death toll.
The CDC predicts that drug overdose deaths during the 12 months ending in August 2024, once fully counted, will total around 89,740, down from nearly 115,000 during the prior 12 months. That is by far the largest annual drop ever recorded, and it represents a striking departure from recent trends. Between 2002 and 2022, the CDC reports, the annual number of drug-related deaths almost quintupled, from fewer than 24,000 to nearly 108,000. During that period, the death toll rose every year except for 2018, when it fell by 4 percent.
Deaths rose by a whopping 30 percent in 2020, rose again in 2021 and 2022, then fell by 3 percent in 2023. Although the CDC heralded that small decrease as a hopeful sign, it pales by comparison with the huge expected drop in 2024. While there are several possible explanations for that unanticipated development, one thing is clear: Drug warriors, whose policies contributed to the seemingly inexorable rise in deaths, cannot take credit for it.
Notwithstanding the projected decrease, the 2024 total probably will still exceed the number recorded before the 2020 spike, which is widely viewed as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government response to it. Unpacking that connection may help illuminate the factors underlying the subsequent decline.
Beginning in the spring of 2020, millions of Americans were out of work, out of school, cooped up at home, separated from social networks, and deprived of engaging activities. Those conditions, observers surmised, were conducive to substance abuse. (They also seem to have played an important role in the similarly large 2020 homicide surge.) While opioid-related deaths were already rising, The New York Times reported in April 2021, “the pandemic unquestionably exacerbated the trend, which grew much worse last spring: The biggest jump in overdose deaths took place in April and May, when fear and stress were rampant, job losses were multiplying and the strictest lockdown measures were in effect.”
During ordinary times, mainstream news outlets like the Times tend to explain addiction and substance abuse by reference to the inherent powers of certain drugs. But confronted by the pairing of pandemic-related disruption with a record rise in drug deaths, they were compelled to acknowledge the importance of personal, social, and economic circumstances.
The Times cited research that found many drug users had increased their consumption during the pandemic. They also were more likely to take drugs on their own, which increases the risk of a fatal outcome, and most reported consuming mixtures of drugs, “another red flag.”
A 2024 study likewise found that “volatile drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic was common, appeared to be driven by structural vulnerability, and was associated with increased overdose risk.” Another study published the same year concluded that “policies limiting in-person activities significantly increased” drug death rates. In addition to magnifying problems t
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