Why Results From Some Swing States Could Take Days
All votes count equally but not all votes are counted the same.
That’s why the outcome of key races might not be known until days after this week’s Election Day.
In two swing states—Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—election workers are prohibited by state law from processing absentee and mail-in ballots until Election Day. More than 2 million voters in Pennsylvania have requested mail-in ballots this year, and more than 80 percent have already been returned. In other states, those returned ballots would be getting opened, verified, and counted already—and those totals would be quickly reported once the polls closed. In Pennsylvania, however, that won’t happen.
The same thing is true in Wisconsin, where about 500,000 mail-in ballots have been requested. If either state’s presidential election is close, which seems likely, it will likely be impossible to declare a winner on Tuesday. And if either state is critical to determining the overall winner, which also seems possible, the outcome of the election may remain uncertain for several days.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt, a Republican, told NPR two weeks ago that it is unlikely that a winner will be determined before the clock strikes midnight on Election Day.
That’s what happened in Pennsylvania (and other states) four years ago. Joe Biden led briefly on election night, but Donald Trump pulled ahead as more votes were tabulated. In the days following the election, as the piles of mail-in ballots were counted, the Keystone State swung back toward Biden, who ultimately won the state by about 80,000 votes.
On its own, that delay is not evidence of fraud by voters or election workers. Processing mail-in ballots takes longer than counting in-person votes—each ballot has to be opened by hand, verified, and counted. States like Pennsylvania should be better prepared to do that than they were in 2020, but it still takes time.
“Our elections have never been more safe and secure with a voter-verified paper ballot record of every vote that’s cast in every election,” Schmidt told Pittsburgh magazine this week. “I have no concerns about the accuracy of the process, and then if any issues did arise, then they would become immediately apparent.”
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