Is Russia Finally Acknowledging Reality?
The Duran presented on October 17 an excellent discussion between John Helmer and Gilbert Doctorow moderated by Alexander Mercouris about how Russian military and civilian decisions are made. The knowledge I gained enables me to update my take on the situation, which I will now do.
The Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, which has been defeated, was a game changer and possibly will result in the termination of Ukraine as an independent country. The reason is that the invasion convinced the Russian public, the General Staff of the Russian military, and buttressed the case of Russian politicians that an independent Ukraine is inconsistent with Russian security.
Putin still says he is open to negotiations, but only if the other side acknowledges the reality on the ground, which Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” does not do. Zelensky says only nukes or NATO can save Ukraine. The Russians will not allow either.
If the Russian Army stops at the Dnieper River, that leaves western Ukraine as a US/NATO missile platform. Stopping at the Dnieper River leaves Putin no way to de-militarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. It would limit his declared goals only to preventing the Russian populations attached by Soviet leaders to Ukraine from being slaughtered by anti-Russian Ukrainian forces.
It seems that Putin overlooked that dispelling Ukrainian military forces from Donbas does not de-militarize Ukraine or prevent Ukraine from being a member of NATO. Putin will have reincorporated former Russian territory back into Russia, but western Ukraine would still be there as a platform for US nukes and from which to trade missile strikes with Russia as Israel and Iran are doing.
The question is whether Putin, who wants peace, will be content with liberating eastern and southern Russian territories of Ukraine, and, if so, whether the Russian public and the General Staff will permit him to leave a Ukrainian state in place or will they see a deal as merely kicking the can down the road.
There is also the question who Putin can negotiate with. Zelensky’s term as president has expired. On what authority is Zelensky still in charge? Putin cannot know whether a deal he makes with Zelensky will later be ruled illegitimate. One would think that Putin has learned from the Minsk Agreement, which was used to deceive him and to leave him unprepared for military action, an
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