The Religious Vote Is Waning—And That Could Spell Trouble for Trump
About 102 million people of faith—including “32 million self-identified Christians who regularly attend church”—are likely to abstain from voting in November, according to a new study from Arizona Christian University (ACU). Many, including the study’s lead researcher, are encouraging churches to “pull it together” to get their congregations out of the pews and into the polls.
The ACU study indicates that enthusiasm for this election among people of faith—defined as someone who associates with a recognized religion, such as Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism, and Islam—is lower than usual and much lower than in 2020, with 57 percent of respondents offering dislike for both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as the reason for their apathy. About 55 percent also said none of the candidates reflected their most important views, and half of the expected nonvoters said the election has become too controversial.
The researchers, led by George Barna, director of research at ACU’s Cultural Research Center, surveyed 2,000 adults during August and September 2024. Barna pointed out that more narrowly defined segments of “people of faith” have different expected turnout rates. Among self-identified Christians who regularly attend church services, 32 million are not expected to vote. At least 14 million adults who regularly attend specifically an evangelical church are expected to not vote. An additional 19 million who regularly attend Catholic services are not likely to vote.
There was some indication that this drop-off in enthusiasm from Trump’s faithful fans was possible. The former president has been trying to distance himself from his past anti-abortion statements and policies (to align better with the majority of Americans), but 41 percent of Christians who regularly attend church services told surveyors that abortion was an issue that most significantly influenced who they would vote for (and a majority of whom oppose abortion). In August, Trump faced backlash after initially opposing Florida’s six-week abortion ban, prompting him to later support it. A few weeks later, he posted “My Administration will be great for women and their reproductive rights” on Truth Social. Days later, Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, was asked by NBC’s Kristen Welker, “Can you commit…that if you and Donald Trump are elected that you will not impose a federal ban on abortion?” Vance answered, “I can absolutely commit that.”
This attempt to moderate was a bridge too far for some prominent anti-abortion activists, including Lila Rose, the founder and president of Live Action, a nonprofit that claims “the largest digital footprint for the global pro-life movement.” Rose is also a Catholic who advocates banning abortion with no exceptions, opposes the use of in vitro fertilization (another disagreement with Trump), is against birth control, and even says that women who get abortions should receive “criminal penalties.” She retweeted Vance’s comments on a federal abortion ban saying, “If you don’t stand for pro-life principles, you don’t get pro-life votes.”
Of course, plenty of Trump’s religious supporters split with Rose on this point. Many also seem worried by the findings of this study. Barna himself went on The Charlie Kirk Show to discuss the survey’s findings, calling the potentially 41 million “born-again Christian” nonvoters a game-changer. “When you look at who those people would be likely to vote for, by a large margin, they would back Mr. Trump. By their refusal to show up in this election…Mr. Trump is going to be very, very hard-pressed
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