The Hurricane Election
How will the hurricanes change the election? Vast swaths of Appalachia are still recovering from Hurricane Helene. Now, Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall, either near Tampa Bay or closer to Sarasota, and Florida has experienced massive displacement, with nine counties ordering mandatory evacuations. (The Waffle House index roughly tracks with the official orders, providing additional impetus for residents to believe this storm will be severe.)
So how will this already-devastating, about-to-get-worse hurricane season affect the election that’s scheduled in less than a month?
Both North Carolina and Georgia were ravaged by Helene. They’re also both critical swing states with large rural populations. Local election officials are attempting to convey confidence, but struggling with the logistics of recovery.
“Early indications are that key election equipment such as ballots and voting machines were largely unaffected by the storm, avoiding a major last-minute logistical nightmare,” reports Politico. “But the mounting to-do list is daunting.” For residents who can’t return to their homes, for example, how will they receive their absentee ballots by the relevant deadlines? Will the absentee ballots actually arrive at the temporary addresses? And how do citizens predict where exactly they’ll be in just a few weeks?
“Roughly one-fifth of North Carolina voters live in areas battered by Helene, according to state voter registration statistics,” reports Politico. “Fourteen county election offices in the state were closed for the near-term as of Tuesday, according to Karen Brinson Bell, the executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections.” Polling places might not have power or running water restored in time for Election Day.
Back in 2022, following that hurricane season (in particular, the devastation caused by Ian), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) let three Florida counties—Charlotte, Lee, and Sarasota (all Republican, covering some 1 million voters)—move or consolidate their polling places, extend the number of days available for early voting, and have more permissive rules for where they could send absentee ballots.
It’s possible that the same type of thing will happen again, but the Florida Legislature has been sensitive to relaxed rules on voting in the wake of allegations of voter fraud following Donald Trump’s electoral loss in 2020. It would be bad if attempts to mitigate the effects of Milton or Helene led to real or perceived voter fraud, or the circulation of baseless conspiracy theories surrounding the election.
But it’s not just the mechanics of voting: The election could also be altered by FEMA incompetence or even the perception of FEMA incompetence. As noted in yesterday’s Roundup, former President Donald Trump has falsely claimed that the Federal Emergency Management Agency ran out of money due to spending it all on housing illegal immigrants. But Twitter CEO/tech bigwig Elon Musk ha
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