‘True Promise II’: Did Iran Restore Deterrence After Its Latest Strikes Against Israel?
All that can be assessed thus far in the absence of any Israeli retaliation at the time of writing is that both sides are very concerned about their reputations.
Iran launched several hundred ballistic missiles against Israel on the evening of 1 October in retaliation for the self-professed Jewish State’s assassination of top Resistance Axis figures and its latest war in Lebanon. Both sides are spinning this to their advantage: Iran claims that “True Promise II” destroyed several of its enemy’s military bases while Israel insists that it was a mostly harmless demonstration. Even so, Israel still promised to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing, keeping the world on edge.
The timing of Iran’s retaliation coincides with the start of the latest Israeli-Lebanese War’s ground phase and might thus have been partially meant to deter a large-scale operation that could lead to Gaza-like levels of destruction. It also followed some of its supporters angrily speculating that Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination last week might not have happened had Iran decisively responded to the assassination of Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran over the summer.
These factors suggest that Iran aimed to advance military, reputational, and strategic goals: deter a Gaza-like war in
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