Trump’s Proposals Would Add $5.8 Trillion to the Deficit
The major proposals pitched by the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump would both expand the federal budget deficit—though Trump’s plans would require significantly more borrowing over the next decade.
Trump’s proposals would add an estimated $5.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a fiscal policy think tank at the University of Pennsylvania (Trump’s alma mater). Most of Trump’s deficit-increasing policies result from proposed changes that would reduce Americans’ tax burden. He’s called for permanently extending the 2017 tax cuts, which would add an estimated $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade (unless Trump comes up with offsetting spending cuts). His plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits will add another $1.2 trillion.
Harris, meanwhile, rings up an estimated $1.2 trillion in larger deficits over the next decade, primarily by increasing government benefits.
She supports expanding the Child Tax Credit and other welfare benefits delivered via the tax code, which would add $2.3 trillion to the deficit over a decade, according to the Penn Wharton analysis. However, her plan to increase the corporate income tax would offset some of that deficit spending by hiking federal revenues by around $1 trillion.
The biggest difference between the two estimates is the dynamic consequences of Trump’s and Harris’ tax plans. The tax cuts proposed by Trump would boost economic growth and offset some of the costs of his other proposals. When those consequences are taken into account, the Penn Wharton estimates show that Trump would add merely $4.1 trillion to the deficit over a deca
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