Russia China, and Iran Are Being Patient…
The background to the developing war
It has become clear that with the lack of response from Iran (so far) over the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh the political leader of Hamas, that in conjunction with Russia and China a common approach has been taken not to be responsible, or even seen to be responsible in the West, for precipitating an all-out military conflict.
We see this approach with Russia’s Special Military Operation as well. Russia is careful to contain it between Russia and Ukraine, despite NATO’s involvement in the provision of modern equipment and personnel to Ukraine, and Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russian territory.
Russia is completely surrounded on her western flank by NATO forces, threatening Russia with a full-scale attack and invasion. All that’s needed is an excuse. To ensure the western border coverage is total, America leaned heavily on Finland and Sweden to join NATO, breaking their long-standing policies of neutrality. Who knows what threats the Americans made to force them to accept and provide weapons and military bases targeting Russia from their territories.
Europeans should be extremely concerned about this, because the Americans don’t care much about collateral damage so long as it is not in America. It was the US’s determination to punish Sadam Hussein, Gaddafi, Assad, and the Taliban in the wake of 9/11 which led to a flood of refugees in Europe. But that’s not America’s problem, and presumably nor will it be if the Europeans get nuked. So long as it’s not US civilians.
That the Europeans, including formally neutral Swedes and Fins have fallen for it says more about their pusillanimity in the face of US diplomatic aggression than anything else. They are cannon fodder for the US’s determination to break up Russia. But in Putin, America has an adversary who demonstrates statecraft and strategic cunning over impetuousness.
In the Middle East, Israel is frightened for its very existence. Netanyahu wants to provoke Iran and her proxies into a confrontation to bring America into direct conflict on her side. Officially, the US is resisting involvement but is reported to have sent a naval fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean signalling that she will back Israel against Iran if necessary.
But the Asian partnership is playing a different game. They are acutely aware that America is looking for excuses for military action in Europe. As the pressure mounts, Russia, Iran, China and even North Korea will have to find alternatives to military action designed to cripple the western alliance.
Non-military tactics
The obvious non-military attack is cyber. Russian actors particularly have been detected disrupting corporate and government intranets, and some analysts have suggested that the Crowdstrike problem which closed down banks, supermarkets, airports, and rail networks around the world was not a coding error but a dummy run by Russian cyber-warriors.
Whether this is true or not, we can be sure that Russia’s technical experts have invested considerable resources into cyberwarfare and electronic disruption potential, including already arranging software pathways into power generation facilities and financial markets. But that sort of attack would be quickly blamed on Russians, even if there is no evidence of their involvement. It would make sense for this to be a response only if the Ukraine proxy war spreads.
Surrounding Russia’s western border was the basis of a possible Plan B for America, given the complications in Ukraine. If she can provoke Russia into attacking a NATO member, or perhaps by using a false flag operation, then a wider invasion of Russia would have been on the cards. But since Finland and Sweden joined NATO Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have initiated an
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