Trump’s New, More Sophisticated Take on Crime Still Does Not Show ‘Homicides Are Skyrocketing’
Last week, the Trump campaign falsely asserted that “homicides are skyrocketing in American cities under Kamala Harris.” On Tuesday, the campaign offered a more nuanced and sophisticated critique of crime data cited by the Democratic presidential nominee. But it still does not support the earlier claim, which is inconsistent with numbers from several sources.
A “memorandum” headlined “Joe Biden’s Lies on Crime” (a title that makes you wonder whether Trump forgot who his opponent is) notes that the FBI changed its crime data collection methods in 2021, switching from the old Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program to the new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). The transition, which was aimed at generating “new and better data,” resulted in a big decline in the number of participating law enforcement agencies. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the share of the population covered by participating agencies fell from the previous norm of about 95 percent to just 65 percent in 2021.
“The FBI’s website reveals that the Q1 2024 data Joe Biden is citing comes from just 71% of the nation’s law enforcement agencies,” the Trump campaign says. “That means crime data from nearly one third of jurisdictions is missing.” The overall NIBRS participation rate, which is relevant in assessing the FBI’s final estimates for any given year, is higher: The FBI says 15,724 of 18,884 eligible agencies, or 83 percent, submitted data for 2022. The overall population coverage rate had risen to 85 percent by 2023. Still, the decline in participation since 2020 is a widely recognized problem.
The Trump campaign notes that “the FBI attempts to ‘estimate’ crime data for non-reporting agencies using a ‘statistical weight’ from reporting agencies similar in size and type”—a “practice of estimating crime numbers for agencies with missing data” that “has been going on since the 1960s.” But historically, the missing data represented around 5 percent of the population, compared to 15 percent in 2023. A bigger gap magnifies the potential for error.
That is a perfectly reasonable point. But does it mean that homicides are, in fact, “skyrocketing”? No.
Nationwide, the FBI’s preliminary numbers indicate, murders fell by 26 percent in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. But other sources also report that homicides are falling this year, albeit by smaller percentages.
Based on a sample of 277 cities, AH Datalytics reports a 17.3 percent drop in murders so far this year, which is very large compared to historical trends. Most of these numbers come from “official” sources, meaning they were reported by local police departments or municipal governments. Some were compiled by state governments, and some came from local news outlets that track crime.
The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), based on data from 39 cities for the first half of 2024, reports that “most violent crimes,” including homicide, “are at or below levels seen in 2019,” the year before a huge spike in murders (which, as Trump wants us to forget, happened during his administration). The CCJ says the drop in homicides through June in “the 29 study cities providing data for that crime” was 13 percent.
According to a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) that covers 69 cities during the same period, the total number of homicides fell by 17.4 percent. That is strikingly similar to the AH Datalytics estimate, although the latter analysis covers a lot more cities—including New York, which was not part of the MCCA sample but saw a 10 percent drop in homicides, according to AH Datalytics.
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