Trade, Public Opinion, and Political Ignorance
A new Cato Institute/YouGov survey sheds some interesting light on public attitudes towards international trade. It finds that most Americans seem to like international trade, but also that there are significant internal contradictions in their views, and that those views are often influenced by ignorance. Such results should not be surprising, given widespread public ignorance about a variety of other public policy issues. But they are nonetheless notable.
In some respects, the Cato surveys that the public is very supportive of free trade, despite recent trends towards protectionism in both major political parties. Some 53% have a favorable view of “free trade,” compared to only 11% that have an unfavorable view. An impressive 63% say they favor “the United States increasing trade with other nations,” while only 10% are opposed.
On the other hand, 62% favor “adding a tariff to blue jeans sold in the US that are manufactured in other countries to boost production and jobs in the American blue jean industry.” Similarly, 62% favor reducing US tariffs “only if… other countries lower their trade restrictions on U.S. products because otherwise they will harm American businesses and jobs,” and 15% oppose tariff reductions under all circumstances. Only 23% favor unilateral tariff reduction (the position held by most economists).
It looks as if large majorities favor “free trade” in principle, but shift positions when jobs are mentioned. But that latter view in turn dissipates once respondents learn that tariffs increase prices. Thus, the survey finds that 66% oppose imposing a tariff on blue jeans if it makes a pair of blue jeans $10 more expensive than it would be otherwise (58% would accept a more modest $5 increase in prices).
Given that almost all effective tariffs are likely to lead to significant price increases (otherwise, there would be no point in imposing them, since this is the only way they could meaningfully help domestic producers by diminishing purchases of foreign products), one would think this price-sensitivity would lead most people to oppose tariffs and support unilateral free trade. Tellingly, however, another question on the survey finds that only 38% know that free trade agreements reduce “the price of products Americans purchase at the store”; 39% believe (wrongly!) that trade agreements actually increase prices. A plurality also believe that trade agreements destroy more US jobs than they create. In reality, the opposite is true, and tariffs often destroy jobs by making pro
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