What’s Next for Russia’s War in Ukraine?

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, and western aid for the underdogs grows, more people ask how far we are willing to go to defend another country and how much we’re willing to risk. It’s difficult to find somebody who doesn’t sympathize with the Ukrainians, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t worry about the price of supporting a war against an autocratic regime that seems unconstrained by human decency and that commands not just tanks and troops, but nuclear weapons.

“Anyone concerned about the cost of supporting a Ukrainian victory should consider the much larger costs should Ukraine lose,” Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R–Ky.) commented last week after a bipartisan majority approved $40 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine. 

Behind his words were the concerns every politician has of being the next Neville Chamberlain, appeasing a dictator now at the price of a wider war in the future. That concern is sufficiently compelling among politicians that Congress approved and President Joe Biden signed legislation offering up a sum substantially larger than the $33 billion actually requested by the White House. But that enormous sum of money at a time of soaring national debt and rising inflation largely fueled the 11 votes against the bill from McConnell’s own Republican ranks.

“Today we are faced with a vastly greater sum of money to be contributed or gifted to Ukraine,” Sen. Rand Paul (R–Ky.), who voted against the measure, told the Senate after reciting a perhaps apocryphal story about Davy Crockett, in his years as a congressman, passing the hat rather than approving taxpayer money to support a military widow. “A noble cause, no doubt. A cause for which I share sympathy and support but a cause for which the Constitution does not sanction or approve of.”

“Putting aside the constitutionality of gifting $40 billion to Ukraine, isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget? The US spends more on our military than the next 8 countries combined. Couldn’t Congress simply shift over the $40 billion and not add it to the debt?” he added.

The public shares at least some of Paul’s concerns about the cost of the war; while 42 percent told Pew Research in March that the U.S. was doing too little to support Ukraine, a plurality of 35 percent now says it’s doing enough. To concerns about cost, add growing public worries about the war’s endpoint. 

“About half of Americans also say they are either extremely (24%) or very (26%) concerned about the possibility of U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine leading to a U.S. war with Russia, with about one-third also saying they are somewhat concerned about this,” Pew notes. “Only about one-in-five (18%) say they are not too or not at all concerned about this.”

Concerns about the war in Ukraine cross party lines and include commentators that usually support the Biden administration,