Today Hungary, Tomorrow Poland — Will German Pressure Cave Eastern Europe?
Since it became clear that Joe Biden was going to be certified as the President-elect it’s been clear that Poland would become a major story. Poland is one of the bad boys of the European Union and with the return of The Davos Crowd’s favorite American, Barack Obama, to the White House all of Poland’s problems within the EU would inensify.
With Nordstream 2 nearly complete, time is rapidly running out for Andrej Duda and his Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Last week I discussed Hungary and whether Prime Minister Viktor Orban had the cards to play in resisting the EU’s pressure there. Orban’s a skilled player who has performed admirably in the face of EU intransigence on his sovereigntist agenda there. Orban always knew he had to balance the great powers around him while still maneuvering Hungary where he knew it needed to go.
Poland hasn’t faired as well. Andrew Korybko hits the nail on the head in a recent post stating:
It also puts the Central European leader in a disadvantageous position after having irresponsibly formulated its foreign policy on the expectation that former US President Trump would win re-election and continue reshaping European geopolitics in a manner that’s in close alignment with Polish interests.
While Trump was in power Poland became increasingly strident in its opposition to both Germany and Russia thinking that U.S. policy would continue long into the future. It was a bad bet. If anyone in Poland’s leadership actually spoke with Vladimir Putin occasionally, even if just for tea, they would have remembered that the U.S. is “Not Agreement Capable.”
This isn’t just hindsight talking. This was all said during Trump’s presidency. Poland’s leadership tried to have their cake and eat it too. Thinking Trump had their backs they could indulge their Russophobia while concurrently opposing Nordstream 2 and flex its sovereignty against Germany, even, like Hungary, inviting an Article 7 censuring by the EU.
The more prudent approach, which myself and others said at the time, would have been to emulate Orban, finding ways to antagonize the EU but only so far while opening up relations with Putin and Trump. Orban showed far more strategic vision than Duda in this respect. He understood his position w
Article from LewRockwell