No Escape From Washington’s Fiscal Doomsday Machine

If you don’t think Washington is in the maws of a Fiscal Doomsday Machine, think again.

And the place to start is with the 30-year CBO projections—expressed as the dollar increase from the current $29 trillion level of publicly held US Treasury debt.

To wit, if Washington does nothing except leave current tax, spending and structural deficit policies in place (i.e. baseline policy), the publicly-held debt will grow by $102 trillion over the next three decades, reaching a staggering 154% of what would be $85 trillion of GDP by 2054.

Moreover, that outcome assumes that Rosy Scenario does not loose her footing for even a moment through the middle of the century. Stated differently, the underlying CBO projections presume that there will be no recession during the 34 year span from 2020 to 2054, and that, in fact, there will be perpetual full-employment at about 4% from here on out.

Of course, during the last 30 years there have been three recessions (shaded area) and no such full-employment perfection was even remotely achieved. The short spells of 4% unemployment or under, in fact, were few and far between—in stark contrast to the CBO baseline which presumes 4% unemployment year after year until 2054.

The CBO projections also assumes that inflation stays strictly in its Fed-prescribed lane at around 2.0% for the next 30 years, as well. That hasn’t remotely happened during the last 30 years, when the inflation rate has exceeded the 2.0% mark during 17 years, and frequently by substantial amounts.

Y/Y Change In CPI 1994 to 2024

Likewise, it assumes that the bond pits will have no problem funding more than $100 trillion of new Treasury debt at yields which average just 3.6% over the next 30 years. Of course, the actual weighted average yield in the Treasury market today stands at 4.2% and the fulcrum 10-year note has been cycling around 4.4%, albeit at this point the prospective debt inundation is just getting started.

Again, judging by the last 30 years of history, the odds that interest rates will be pushed down into the mid-3% range and remain there for 30 years running would not seem very compelling, either.

Indeed, during the past 30-year period shown in the graph below the bond pits had the Fed’s big wind at their back as the latter monetized upwards of $8.5 trillion of US Treasury and GSE paper by the 2022 peak. Even then, yields were well above the CBO 3.6% assumption half the time, and were pushed lower only by the massive money-printing spree between 2008 and 2022—a feat not likely to be repeatable again without fueling even more inflation and speculation than we already have.

10-Year UST Yield, 1994 to 2024

Needless to say, with a baseline projection of $102 trillion of new debt ridding on the back of a veritable Rosy Scenario, you would think that Washington might be forming a fiscal bucket brigade to beginning bailing out the sinking budgetary ship. And most especially that it would be lead by the GOP—the once and former party of balance budgets and fiscal rectitude.

Not the Trumpified GOP, however. The Donald

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Article from LewRockwell

Lew Rockwell

LewRockwell.com is a libertarian website that publishes articles, essays, and blog posts advocating for minimal government, free markets, and individual liberty. The site was founded by Lew Rockwell, an American libertarian political commentator, activist, and former congressional staffer. The website often features content that is critical of mainstream politics, state intervention, and foreign policy, among other topics. It is a platform frequently used to disseminate Austrian economics, a school of economic thought that is popular among some libertarians.