Down with Political Polling. Up with Prediction Markets.
Where do you get your news? How often do they tell you what will happen? How often do they get it right?
For decades, mainstream media have dominated many people’s news consumption. These days, a lot of people get their news from social media.
In both MSM and social media, analysis and predictions are tainted by preferences and hopes. Pundits, influencers, and most of your friends on Facebook tend to promote expectations that match what would happen if they could choose the outcome.
It’s not a new issue. I recall hearing on NPR nearly two decades ago that a respected predictor of political or economic outcomes had explicitly stated in so many words that he based his prediction on analysis, not on his hopes. After the outcome went the other way, he publicly admitted that he had indeed predicted based on hope rather than on analysis. Yes, he admitted to lying about the basis of his prediction.
More commonly, the deceit is more opaque. Biased polls and wishful thinking pervade much of our media consumption.
This is not an adequate solution for the predictions that we often rely on.
Of course, even the best polls and analysis will be wrong sometimes—no one demands perfection. As Yogi Berra famously observed, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.”
Nonetheless, in a free market, whenever
Article from Mises Wire