Will Trump Beat the Odds? Are You Willing to Bet on It?
Donald Trump will probably lose the election.
As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8% chance of winning.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump’s win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12% chance.
But people who “put money where their mouths are” give Trump a better chance: 37%.
Though 61%-37% seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37% means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time.
Four years ago, most bettors were wrong about Trump and Brexit. I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets.
But since bettors were wrong in 2016, why trust betting odds now?
Because betting is a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models and everything else.
ElectionBettingOdds.com has tracked hundreds of races. When bettors think a candidate has a 37% chance—they really do win roughly that often.
A research scientist at Amazon concluded that in the last presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com beat all other existing public prediction models except for Nate Silver’s polls-plus model.
Silver says: “Betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics… Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes.” Also, “Markets (are) not s
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