Scott Bessent Takes Premature Victory Lap on Tariff Revenues
Last Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took a victory lap as his department reported an unexpected increase in receipts from tariffs. The revenue undoubtedly came from a surge in imports to the U.S., which led to payments that filled federal coffers. It would seem to be a win for an administration that has staked an awful lot on waging a trade war with the entire planet to (take your pick) redress wrongs done to America, raise revenue for the government, and encourage domestic manufacturing and employment. But that victory lap comes too soon; the tariff windfall more likely represents efforts by U.S. firms to accumulate inventory before tariff rates rise even higher.
Big Revenues From a Surge in Imports
“Another promise made. Another promise kept,” Bessent boasted on X. “As President Trump works hard to take back our nation’s economic sovereignty, today’s Monthly Treasury Statement is demonstrating record customs duties – and with no inflation!”
The Treasury Secretary referred to a report that the U.S. government had posted a surplus in June. In particular, customs duties were $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and 301 percent higher than June of the previous year.
The customs revenue increase reflects the increase in traffic seen at U.S. ports. That would seem to support the Trump administration’s claims that raising tariffs doesn’t necessarily harm the United States. But digging into the details reveals a story less convenient for the White House.
“After reporting slumping shipping volumes in May, the Port of Los Angeles rebounded in June with an 8% surge in year-over-year imports,” according to Fortune‘s Sasha Rogelberg. “But Executive Director Gene Seroka is not yet celebrating, warning the spike is reflective of stockpiling activities from companies trying to dodge tariff deadlines.”
In fact, Seroka expects business at the Port of Los Angeles to ease in August as the next trade deadline approaches. On July 8, the president announced a 50 percent tariff on copper to be imposed with that August 1 deadline, which drove prices for the metal to a
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