Why the Next Decade Will Not Be Like the Previous 40 Years
The mainstream assumption is the status quo will continue on much as before. This isn’t just unlikely, it’s impossible if total energy produced and consumed declines.
Correspondent C.A. submitted this insightful interview with economic strategist and historian Russell Napier: “We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale”.
In Napier’s telling, the 40-year period from 1980 to 2020 was dominated by central banks (monetary policy) and markets (enterprises seeking to maximize profits).
These forces fueled the rise of globalization (maximize profits by arbitraging lower labor and production costs overseas via offshoring production) and financialization (vastly expand debt and leverage but keep debt service low by steadily reducing interest rates).
The second-order effect of the resulting hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization was hyper-dependency on geopolitical rivals and on monetary intervention and credit/asset bubbles to support consumption.
Neither was sustainable. Near-total dependence on geopolitical rivals in service of private-sector profits created existential national security vulnerabilities which must now be addressed by reshoring / homeshoring / friendshoring critical production.
The market, ruled solely by incentives to maximize profits by any means available, created this vulnerability. It is incapable of resolving it.
I covered all these dynamics in depth in my book A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States which predated the Ukraine War by four months.
Napier sees governments replacing central banks as the primary force in creating credit
Article from LewRockwell