Revenge of the Abortion Voters?
Republicans seemed so close to a massive midterm victory in 2022. Then the reality of their anti-abortion ideology started to drop. Now, Democrats are gaining ground again, and the outcome of this November’s election seems much less clear.
With gas prices high, inflation still rising, and Democrats still tainted by bad COVID policy, polls in late 2021 and the first half of 2022 showed American swing voters leaning heavily Republican. For instance, Gallup polling on independent voters found Democrats’ nine-point advantage over Republicans at the start of 2021 shifted to a five-point Republican advantage by the end of the year. In March, independents surveyed by The Wall Street Journal favored Republicans by 12 percentage points, and 46 percent of respondents overall said they would back a Republican candidate for Congress, while only 41 percent would back a Democrat. And in a PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted in April, 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for a Republican candidate if the election were held then, compared to just 44 percent who favored Democrats. “Republicans have strong support among independents who break toward the GOP by 7 points, and only one in 10 say they’re still undecided on which party to support,” PBS reported.
Things look different now. And abortion may explain this shift.
In June, the Supreme Court handed down its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade (1973) and upending the basis for legal abortion across America. Some Republican-controlled state legislatures rushed to pass new anti-abortion laws, while previously passed bans triggered by Roe‘s overturning also started taking effect.
Dobbs and its aftermath may have heartened hard-core pro-life factions. But early signs suggest it’s not playing so well with the U.S. populace at large—a populace that remains moderately but significantly pro-choice.
Before Dobbs, “Republicans were cruising, and Democrats were having a hard time,” Republican pollster and strategist Tony Fabri
Article from Reason.com