Kansans Reject Anti-Abortion Ballot Measure—and It’s Not Even Close

Voters overwhelmingly voted against a measure that would have allowed abortion to be banned in Kansas in the first post-Roe test of abortion’s legality put directly to the people.

As of Wednesday morning—with 95 percent of precincts reporting—the vote was 58.8 percent against and 41.2 percent for, according to The New York Times.

The ballot measure would have amended the Kansas constitution to state that it did not protect the right to have an abortion. Such an amendment would open the gates for state lawmakers to ban abortion—an option currently blocked by a 2019 state Supreme Court finding that the Kansas Constitution’s guarantee of “equal and inalienable rights” included a “natural right of personal autonomy” that protected abortion access.

But voters yesterday gave a resounding no to the question “should the Kansas constitution be amended to remove protections of abortion rights?”

The vote isn’t the result of low turnout—Kansans voted on the abortion measure in numbers normally not seen in non-general elections.

Secretary of State Scott Schwab says that, based on anecdotal evidence, turnout today may match the turnout in the 2008 presidential general election contest.

That would be around 50% turnout, way above the 36% turnout his office predicted earlier this week. #ksleg

— Katie Bernard (@KatieJ_Bernard) August 3, 2022

Nor is it a result of August elections typically favoring more liberal voters. “When the Legislature’s GOP supermajority placed the amendment on the ballot last year they picked the election most likely to favor the amendment,” notes The Kansas City Star. “August primaries have disproportionately high Republican turnout because Democratic primaries in Kansas are often uncontested.”

And it doesn’t turn on results from more liberal urban areas or university towns alone. Suburban Johnson county overwhelmingly voted against it:

Johnson County, Kansas is a big populous suburban county. Voted for Biden 53-45. NO on removing protections for abortion rights is winning 72-28.

THIS is how the suburbs are responding to the reversal of Roe.

— Katie Paris (@katiebparis) August 3, 2022

Rural counties such as Franklin and Osage also voted against the amendment “by significant margins,” reports the Star. And even many rural counties that voted for it did so by smaller margins than they did for Donald Trump in 2020.

Whether Kansas is a good bellwether for the rest of the country on this issue is debatable. But Kansas is a relatively conservative and Republican state, and residents voting against an anti-abortion initiative at least suggests that conservative enthusiasm for banning abortion might not be as strong as many believe.

Of course, Kansans voting down this ballot measure doesn’t meant they wouldn’t support a 15-week limit on legal abortion or other more moderate restrictions. But a total ban—which the measure would have allowed for—doesn’t seem to have majority support.

With the Kansas abortion amendment vote, just a reminder that there are a sizable number of voters who:
-consider themselves pro-life or who would support prohibiting abortion after 15 weeks
AND
-also believe Roe should be upheld.
(Our @EchelonInsights May data, pre-Dobbs —>) pic.twitter.com/UWpfLfRyGF

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) August 3, 2022

Does this mean Democrats will benefit from calling out GOP extremism on abortion? Some think so.

“It’s clear there are more than a few Republican voters who oppose extreme anti-abortion restrictions. Suggests opportunities for Democrats in November with a ‘vote against anti-abortion extremism’ message,” conservative pundit Bill Kristol tweeted.

The vote is “a