Deutsche Bank Now Modeling German Households Chopping Wood To Keep Warm This Winter
Yesterday we reported that just in case the world didn’t have enough things to worry about, it is now also petrified about Europe’s potential “doomsday” on July 22 when Putin will decide the fate of the continent: if he resumes gas flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which is currently undergoing ten-day maintenance, things will be back to normal(ish). If not, this is the scenario contemplated by Wall Street strategists: “European stocks plunging 20%. Junk credit spreads widening past 2020 crisis levels. The euro sinking to just 90 cents, before a full-blown recession slams the world’s 2nd biggest economy.”
Then overnight, in a note from Deutsche Bank senior economist Eric Heymann (available to pro subscribers), the largest German lender laid out the three most likely scenarios for what the post-maintenance period could look like. As Heymann writes, “we developed three scenarios on how Russian gas supplies to Germany via Nord Stream 1 as well as the transition point Waidhaus might evolve over the next few months.”
- Scenario 1: Status quo ante. Here, DB assumes that Russian gas deliveries return to the level we had seen in the weeks before the current maintenance period of Nord Stream 1, i.e. 60% below the level at the end of May.
- Scenario 2: Balanced on a knife-edge. Here, the bank assumes another halving of Russian gas supplies via both pipelines. That would c
Article from LewRockwell