A Jobless Recovery Is Coming to Europe
The International Monetary Fund has published its April outlook for the global economy. It has been hailed by most commentators due to the strong upgrade in GDP recovery. The report states that “global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility.”
However, there are important warning signs that should be considered because headlines have been predominantly euphoric about this optical upgrade.
Two factors that affect the quality of the recovery should worry us: the upgrade comes mostly from higher government spending and rising debt, and the job recovery is much slower than in previous cycles.
The unemployment rate in the euro area will remain well above 2019 levels even in 2022 (rising from 7.9 percent in 2020 to 8.3 percent in 2022). Only Germany shows a positive employment outlook that leads its unemployment ratio to fall to 3.7 percent. Spain, on the opposite side, will
Article from Mises Wire